At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms. Looking for better economic conditions, Ukraine returned all of its nuclear warheads to Russia in exchange for economic aid and security assurances from US, UK in a bid to pivot from Geo-Strategy to Geo-Economics. The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers. But the deadly weapons, some argued, were the only reliable means of deterring Russian aggression. More widely, experts fear that the ongoing Russian ‘Special Operations’ could turn Ukraine from an example of arms-control benefits to one of atomic-disarmament risks, and drive the aspiring nuclear states of the world to pursue their own nuclear arms programs.
In the current backdrop, Pakistan’s policy shift from Geo-Politics to GeoEconomics is bringing many optimists back to the drawing board. As it is clearly seen that the world politics is in a state of flux and going through patches of relatively uneasy peace between numerous contenders in the great power competition. Unipolarity is currently under stress where regional power contestation is taking different shapes. United States as a receding power is endeavouring to regain lost glory though it is being challenged at multiple fronts by rising China and resurgent Russia. Political re-alignments are in the offering to the regional players who have been fence sitters for a considerable time. US withdrawal from Afghanistan and shift of focus to Indo-Pacific clearly indicates future power contestation in this region. On the other hand Russia is flexing her muscle by creating a new ‘New World Order’ by defying all West backed sanctions and exert influence in the periphery thus radiating renewed self-confidence as well as providing fillip for new alignments.
The geo-strategic location of Pakistan places it right in the centre of three major security complexes of the world thus at the epicentre of the Geo-Politics creating both challenges as well as opportunities for Pakistan due to geography, demography and potential size of economy casting it to be a prudent candidate for the status of a Geo-Strategic pivot state. However, the Achilles' heel for Pakistan is its economy. Despite economic growth of 5.3% in 2020–21, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the foundations of Pakistan’s economy are beset by macroeconomic weaknesses, underdevelopment and interrelated policy failures. The newly published National Security Policy emphasis on prosperity as a means to greater strategic ends implies no substitution of Geo-Strategy for Geo-Economics: instead the latter folds into the former. As a result, while the document enunciates that Pakistan wants ‘regional peace’ and to ‘improve relationship with India’, that goal is in effect subordinate to a stronger defence and deterrence stance, made possible by the anticipated stronger economy placing Pakistan further in the “Guns versus butter’ conundrum.
Pakistan’s sole focus for Geo-Economics is on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the ambit of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which might be scuttled by the poor infrastructure development and logistics bottle-necks due to slow border clearance procedures and abysmal rail-road connectivity with neighbouring countries. With the not so transparent contracts with the Chinese companies for Energy and infrastructure development, it is difficult to assess the long-term viability and dividends produced by these mega projects to re-pay loans to the Chinese lenders. Sri Lanka declaring bankruptcy must give Pakistani economic pundits food for thought to re-calibrate policy option for shift from Geo-Politics to Geo-Economics. Given current trends, with no political step change with India seeming likely, the new policy creates the prospect of greater, rather than less, GeoStrategic competition with India. Good intentions aside, Pakistan’s pivot toward GeoEconomics is likely to hit a brick wall of reality—and fast.
