Interdependence. The rivalry between U.S. and China is the next defining phase of international politics. For the way this rivalry will unfold in the future, this interdependence must reduce substantially before any phase of conflict and strategic contention comes around. However, such a situation seems difficult as it has taken them four decades to achieve linkages. It is just not possible to reduce trade volume to a few billions within a few years and a herculean task to shift investment from one country to another, and to close operational industries, businesses, and commercial transactions – they do not even have alternative markets.
Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Alfred Thayer Mahan noted that a state which controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia as this ocean is the key to seven seas. Being a geographical reality, it is important how great powers and regional states see the IOR which is home to around 2.7 billion people, thirty-three states and around 40 percent of the global oil supplies go through the region. For the U.S. it is an extension of its own power matrix while China perceives it as a region having security anxieties. It is imperative to note those trends in this region which add to insecurities that may lead to war, conflicts, and even cooperation. The prevailing security issues of IOR include deteriorating economic indexes, piracy, smuggling, human security violations, pandemics, and weak environment protection.
The US National Security Strategy describes China as a ‘revisionist’ state which threatens the American rules-based international order. If one reads about Thucydides, it becomes clear that revisionist powers have been creating problems for the existing system. Germany, Italy, and Soviet Union were once considered revisionist states. The existing geopolitical discourse is marked by a particular U.S.-created debate about China. Status-quo powers, as they perceive themselves, portray themselves as good and nice and consider revisionists as problem-makers.
From the military point of view, the U.S. military base on the Island of Diego Garcia increases security dilemma for China and Russia. This is why China opened its own military base in Djibouti. A surprising fact is that the U.S., Japan, and even France has military bases in Djibouti. Chinese presence in Djibouti is being perceived as a problem but China does not control Djibouti as portrayed by the West. In 2020, Russia established a new naval base in Sudan for a period of 25 years due to the fear of blocking of strategic choke points. And now, Russia is seen as a revitalized malign actor by the U.S. for its bold steps. China-India competition is another factor, and both are trying to invest in the Duqm port of Oman which is a major gateway in Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
Indian Ambitions. India wants to pursue great power status in international politics in the future. India sees itself as a state which is in a position to have a natural influence in the Indian Ocean – that is exactly how Pakistan sees itself. The Indian Navy, which is the 7th largest navy in the world, is set to increase its strategic presence in IOR through nuclear arsenals and is also interested in exploring deep sea minerals.
Pakistan’s Strategic Choices. In its NSS 2022, the U.S. has stated its five partners – India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Pakistan has been deliberately excluded with India designated as the ‘net security provider’ and offshore balancer vis-à-vis China in the region. Such a situation reflects increasing security concerns for Pakistan. Here looms the pertinent challenge of the peripheralization of Pakistan, especially with the U.S. when Pakistan has deep relations with China. With an intensified China-U.S. conflict, the risk to choose sides also increases for Pakistan. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is clear – Pakistan is not there and is thus being pushed towards China. If Pakistan moves to that direction, it will automatically alienate the U.S. in its foreign policy options which needs to be avoided. Indian military activities in the IOR increase Pakistan’s strategic anxieties. Complete alliance with China will create problems as the U.S. dominates international financial institutions and could create severe economic challenges for Pakistan thereby pushing Pakistan to adopt hedging strategy which stresses how to balance between both big powers without aligning with any one of them, and how the national security policy can be drafted to bring maximum output for political, economic, and military benefits.
